Some reflections from reading fiction

Build yourself a library and maybe a recommendation for some summer reading.

Recently I did something that most of my friends did in their youth. Reading Isaac Asimov Foundation Series, I have not yet finished but I think there are some basic ideas that could fit where the Asimov’s storytelling may be something we can learn for, not only as a way to “predict” where humanity will end up but also what potential first actions we may take both as individuals and as a community.

Let me first summarise the important arc of the story telling of the foundation series. The origin of the idea is that the pioneer Hari Seldon has introduced a scientific topic called Psychohistory which predicts the step-wise deterioration of the galactic empire. He also creates the first foundation and a purpose which is essentially the creation of a gigantic encyclopedia. The purpose is not to prevent the empire’s fall but steps to minimize the time it would take to recreate something new (and better).

Each of these predicted crises would change the foundation (as the empire changed) and would be called a Seldon moment.

In his story writing Asimov was very inspired by “The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire” by Edward Gibbons, and even though it can be argued that it did not happen like that exactly the idea that a system based on trade with a central power that fell into decline because of moral decline in the center city.

What is interesting may not be the decline or the potential crisis we may see in the future but looking at what we may do to mitigate it or shorten the time until we could go forward with new developments.

First of all, I mentioned that the decline would go gradual or step-wise and there I would like to point at the very interesting 4D session we had with Thomas Björkman and especially focus on the idea of bifurcations, something that happens in all complex systems when something that feels stable goes through a sudden change to something new. To draw an analogue, the bifurcation would be (to me) a Seldon moment.

The second part that I think is important is that the foundation is created in the periphery. Places with minimum central control, and since the creation of an encyclopedia is such an innocent project they are free to go somewhere to do it. Maybe a bit like a monastery that keeps a secret library away from religious zealousness, like in Umberto Eco’s “The name of the Rose”.

The other thing is that we learn the importance of building alliances with your neighbours in the periphery. In the foundation the neighbouring planets are populated with rogue states with minimum respect for the central powers (or your neighbors) where the next step is trading your knowledge for protection.

So is there anything to learn from this Scientific Fantasy at all. I believe so, the parallel with Seldon’s psychohistory and what we may do with AI together with Cliodynamics as is ongoing by Peter Turchin. I became aware of his work when doing research on this topic, and what his idea is that he is using the theories of complexity to historical data fitting the past into a model of sociology. I think his work is worth a later deep-dive in a separate essay.

On the other hand our increasing dependence on digital sources has made it easier to control history by changing the underlying texts. Which brings me to what we all can do as a small step, and that is to become archivists and librarians. A text on paper or vellum cannot be changed unless you have cooperation.

A fun anecdote on that is that my uncle was a librarian at the University of Uppsala and they had a copy of the Soviet Encyclopedia and once after the death of Stalin they sent out a change request and that was to cut out page on Beria, and instead they needed a longer article on the strait of Bering.

That is why authorities are more afraid of material on paper than online material, since it cannot be censored after it has been shipped to you. Remember that online digital archives can have similar roles, and maybe we should be diligent and archive data that we may need which may be deleted (or made unavailable) by authoritarian regimes, also to repeat the learning from the foundation, keep the archive in the perifery.

This brings me to the last book which fits to this theme and that is of course “Fahrenheit 451” by Ray Bradbury, and please pay special emphasis on the end which is what gives us hope.

As some of you might know I am an online poet, and the returning character is an old librarian which should be a metaphor for my thoughts when it comes to the importance of human knowledge and real intelligence in a time of AI.

Let me end with a short poem from my blog of my library and librarian.

Memento Mori

A letter found on the aged librarian’s desk after he
disappeared into the deeper levels of the library

Dear young visitor
whoever you will be, bright-eyed, blue or not
when you read this
I will be gone to search
for the sources resting in the vaults,
the letters, manuscripts and books
in verses and prose
written in latin or not
digging through the dust
for where we went wrong
for that inflexion point
in history, that first crossroad,
when another road taken
would have lead us into
a world not governed by hatred,
a world not built from lies and false heroes
a world where we all belong

I do not know if
it will be when a battle was lost (or won)
or in the hunt for witches
in inventions misused or never used
or the rape of a peasant girl
during a religious wars of the 17th century.

What I have learned
by reading
is that hatred can by fueled
mostly by our own fear of dying.

Maybe I will never find the roots
but you,
my young reader: look towards the sky
to find trees
that will bear leaves again
and maybe you will find a way to rule
without engaging with death.

If we’ll meet let’s share some tea
and listen to the birds
or else…

And to end, please share some other literature or fiction you may want to read during the summer.